Market trends

Finished Lot Prices Slip as Builders Cut Land Spending: What This Week's Earnings Mean for Land Sellers

LandMatch USA · · 7 min read

This week, the companies that buy the most land in America reported their land plans. The short version: fewer lots, lower prices on some of them, and less patience for deals that don't pencil.

On October 29, Forestar Group, the national lot developer majority-owned by D.R. Horton, reported that its average sales price per lot dropped to $108,300 in its fiscal fourth quarter, down from $115,700 a year earlier. A day earlier, Meritage Homes said it cut land investment by almost 40%. Dream Finders Homes said it will drop land deals that miss its return targets.

If you sell land to builders, wholesale lots, or buy acreage for manufactured homes, these numbers shape your next offer.

What Forestar's Numbers Say About Finished Lot Prices

Forestar is the closest thing the industry has to a public price check on finished lot prices. It turns raw land into ready-to-build lots for builders. According to its fiscal 2026 results release:

  • Average lot price: $108,300 in the quarter ended September 30, 2026, versus $115,700 a year earlier, roughly a 6% drop. For the full fiscal year, the average was $111,200 versus $108,400, so the decline is recent, not year-long.
  • Lots sold: 13,545 for the year, down 5%.
  • Lots controlled through purchase contracts: 26,200, down from 34,700 a year earlier.
  • Lot banking: only 24 lots sold through lot banking projects in the quarter, versus 148 a year earlier.
  • 2027 outlook: 12,000 to 13,000 lots, below the 13,545 delivered this year.

Chairman Donald J. Tomnitz said new home demand "continues to be impacted by ongoing affordability constraints and cautious consumer sentiment, with rising mortgage rates adding further pressure in the fourth quarter." He added that Forestar will "balance the pace and price of lot sales with the timing of our investments."

When the biggest lot developer slows its pace, fewer contracts go out on raw acreage.

Builders Are Shrinking Their Land Pipelines

Forestar was not alone. Q3 reports released October 28 and 29 show a clear pattern in builder land acquisition for 2026:

| Company | Lot position (Sept. 30, 2026) | Change | Source | |---|---|---|---| | Meritage Homes | ~71,800 owned or controlled | down from ~80,800 a year earlier | Meritage Q3 release | | Dream Finders Homes | 52,574 controlled | down from 63,121 at Dec. 31, 2025 | DFH Q3 release | | Century Communities | 60,969 owned and controlled | down 2.0% year over year | Century Q3 release | | Green Brick Partners | 40,869 owned | up 11.4% year over year | Green Brick Q3 release |

Meritage: land spend down almost 40%

Meritage said it "pulled back our land investments by almost 40% year-over-year to $329 million," compared with $528 million a year earlier. Still, it added nearly 2,000 net new lots in the quarter, an estimated 21 future communities. Builders are still buying, just more selectively.

Dream Finders: terminating deals that miss return targets

Dream Finders closed its roughly $2.2 billion purchase of Beazer Homes on October 20. CEO Patrick Zalupski said the company will review the combined land portfolio and exercise "our option to terminate land deals that do not meet our return thresholds," and it expects deal abandonment charges in the fourth quarter. It also said "higher land and financing costs" cut its homebuilding gross margin to 14.9% from 17.5%.

Green Brick: still adding owned lots

Green Brick, which builds in Texas, Atlanta and Florida, grew its owned lots 11.4% while "continuing to invest in our land pipeline." Well-capitalized regional builders are still writing contracts.

We covered how PulteGroup handled its optioned lots in Lot Option Agreements: Why Big Builders Are Walking Away. This week's reports show that discipline spreading across the industry.

Raw Land vs. Finished Lots: Where the Pressure Lands

Builders want lots they can build on now. When they cut land budgets, raw and unentitled tracts lose bidders first.

Entitled land is a different story. On October 27, Hendry County, Florida commissioners voted to change 39 acres near the Caloosahatchee River from low-density to high-density residential for a 55+ manufactured home and RV community of about 200 sites, as reported by WGCU and Lake Okeechobee News. The county's advisory planning agency had recommended denial over water and wastewater capacity, and commissioners were told the needed infrastructure is about two years away. Value comes from zoning, density and a path to utilities.

What This Means for Land Sellers

  • Expect slower contracts and tighter terms. Big builders are protecting returns, so offers may come with longer feasibility periods or phased takedowns.
  • Price from finished lot values backward. If finished lots in your area are softening, raw land offers will reflect the cost to entitle and develop. Our land value guide explains how buyers build that math.
  • Widen your buyer pool. Regional builders, custom builders and investors may move faster than national builders that are trimming land budgets. See our guide on how to sell land.

What This Means for Wholesalers

Deals national builders decline don't disappear; smaller builders and private investors pick them up. Focus on:

  1. Finished or near-finished lots in submarkets where builders are still adding communities.
  2. Parcels with clear utility access and zoning that already allows the intended use.
  3. Verified buy boxes. A buyer who posts specific acreage, price and zoning criteria is easier to close than a broad list.

What This Means for Builders and Mobile Home Investors

For small and mid-size builders, this is a window: with big builders more selective, sellers may accept better terms. Our page on land for builders covers how to find lots that fit your product, and The 2026 Land Buyer's Market shows how to negotiate in a softer market.

For manufactured home investors, Hendry County shows that entitlement drives value. Before buying acreage, check the comprehensive plan and utility capacity. Our post on where manufactured homes are allowed explains why zoning is the main bottleneck.

How LandMatch Helps

LandMatch USA is a map where land buyers post their buy box, meaning the areas, acreage, price range and zoning they want, so wholesalers and landowners can see real demand before they market a deal.

Builders and investors: post your buy box for free so sellers bring deals that fit. Wholesalers and landowners: search the map to see which buyers want land in your area. Try LandMatch free.

Post your buy box

Builders and land investors: post the counties, acreage and price you buy so sellers bring you raw acreage and finished lots.

Post your buy box

FAQ

Are finished lot prices going down in 2026?

Some data points to softening. Forestar's average lot price fell to $108,300 in the quarter ended September 30, 2026, from $115,700 a year earlier, though its full-year average was slightly higher than in fiscal 2025. Prices vary widely by market.

Why are homebuilders cutting land spending?

Builders cite affordability pressure and rising mortgage rates. Meritage cut land investment by almost 40% year over year in Q3, and Dream Finders said it will terminate land deals that miss its return thresholds.

Is it still a good time to sell land to builders?

Builders are still buying, but they are selective. Meritage added nearly 2,000 net new lots in Q3 and Green Brick grew its owned lots 11.4%. Entitled land with utilities in active submarkets has the best odds.

What is the difference between raw land and finished lots?

Raw land has no approved subdivision, streets or utilities. Finished lots are platted and served by roads and utilities, ready for a builder to pull permits.

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